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2026 Draft Series

A Target & Trap in every round

One player to draft, one to fade — at the same cost — for every round of your draft. Both names are always within a few picks of each other, so every card answers a decision you'll actually face on the clock. Built from 10,000 season simulations, every fact verified the day it posts.

Draft CostWhere the market drafts him (positional ADP)
Sim MedianHis median finish across 10,000 simulated seasons
Bust / Top-5 OddsThe tail odds that separate the pair
R1

Ja'Marr Chase over Christian McCaffrey

The real decision at picks 3–6. Chase carries a 52% shot at a top-5 season at 26. McCaffrey is a 30-year-old back coming off a career-high workload — the sim prices the tread, not the camp reports: median RB9 against an RB3 cost.

Round 1: draft Ja'Marr Chase, fade Christian McCaffrey
R2

Omarion Hampton over Saquon Barkley

Two picks apart. Hampton is the confirmed lead back in a run-first scheme with his tackles back healthy. Saquon's decline already showed on the 2025 tape — 5.8 to 4.1 yards a carry, a career-low 1.6 after contact — and the market is still paying RB8 for the bounce-back at 29.

Round 2: draft Omarion Hampton, fade Saquon Barkley
R3

Nico Collins over Breece Hall

Houston's unquestioned No. 1 — rested, not hurt — with Kirk and Dell pulling coverage underneath. Hall is paid like a bell cow, but 2025 was his first 1,000-yard season and the Jets are planning real roles for Allen and Davis behind him. RB23 median at an RB15 price.

Round 3: draft Nico Collins, fade Breece Hall
R4

Cam Skattebo over Travis Etienne

23% bust against 40%. Skattebo is the clear Giants lead back — first up in every drill at camp. New Orleans paid Etienne $52M and then opened camp splitting his first-team reps with Kamara. That's a committee at a lead-back price.

Round 4: draft Cam Skattebo, fade Travis Etienne
R5

In the lab

Verification in progress. Every card on this page gets its facts checked live on the day it publishes — camp reports, injuries, depth charts. Round 5 drops as soon as its pairing survives that check.
R6

Rome Odunze over Courtland Sutton

The one that started the series. DJ Moore's trade to Buffalo thinned the target competition in Chicago — Odunze is first in line at 24. Denver traded a first-round pick for Jaylen Waddle — real new competition for Sutton's targets at 31.

Round 6: draft Rome Odunze, fade Courtland Sutton
R7

In the lab

Dropping this week. Follow @getfantasyalpha — every round posts there first.
R8

In the lab

Dropping this week. The late rounds are where the biggest gaps between price and sim live.
R9

RJ Harvey over J.K. Dobbins

Same Denver backfield, five picks apart. Harvey went 540 rushing and 356 receiving yards as a rookie and has been the standout of Broncos camp — a 19% bust rate, the lowest we've measured in this range. Dobbins is 27, still not practicing, and Denver just drafted another back.

Round 9: draft RJ Harvey, fade J.K. Dobbins
R10

In the lab

The finale. When all ten rounds are live, this page becomes the full draft-day cheat sheet.
● How to trust this

The rules every card follows

Same shelf, always. Both players sit within a few picks of each other — we never "recommend" a consensus top-2 pick or fade someone you'd never take anyway.

Verified the day it posts. Every camp report, injury note, and depth-chart claim is checked live before a card ships. Pairings that fail the check get killed — several already have.

Every call is logged. The day a card publishes, its exact numbers go into our call ledger. At the end of the season we grade ourselves in public — hits and misses.